Sweden Electoral Forecast
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Published on 9 September 2026
Forecast sealed before the Riksdag election in Sweden of 13 September 2026. Information cut-off: 7 September.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
Social Democrats (S) favourites to finish first in votes: 97.8% probability. Central vector: S 28.0% · SD 21.2% · M 17.3%; L at 4.1%, with a 52.7% chance of clearing the 4% national threshold —the decisive uncertainty. SD first at just 2.2%.
Official result
The Social Democrats came first with 28.02% and 99 seats, almost exactly on the central forecast (28.0%). But second place went to the Moderates (19.85%), not the Sweden Democrats (17.48%), both outside their bands; the Liberals cleared the threshold comfortably (5.34%), though above their band (3.3–4.5%), and the Greens (6.12%) and other lists (1.58%) fell below theirs: five of the nine bands missed. Turnout 84.89%. Official result from the Election Authority (Valmyndigheten), 19 September 2026.
Direction: HitMagnitude: Miss
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts — sealed 4 days before the event. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
ba206961 ba596c9b c32e3e3a f418f5c9 9eb50d24 f7692a2f 6239cdf9 7997e7f0
Status: anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain
Calendars: alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, finney.calendar.eternitywall.com
Seal date: 9 September 2026 · event: 13 September 2026
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