Okinawa Electoral Forecast
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Published on 11 September 2026
Forecast sealed before the gubernatorial election in Okinawa (Japan) of 13 September 2026. Information cut-off: 9 September.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
Genta Koja favourite to finish first: 59.1% probability (Denny Tamaki 40.9%). Central vector of valid votes: Koja 48.90% · Tamaki 48.05%; an advantage of just 0.85 points. The model gives 20.8% to a margin under 1 point —a very open race—; a Tamaki victory would be fully compatible with the forecast.
Official result
Genta Koja won with 59.42% of valid votes against 38.77% for Denny Tamaki: a 20.65-point margin, compared with the narrow race forecast (a 0.85-point Koja lead). Both shares fell outside their ranges (44–54% and 43–53%); the four minor candidates landed inside theirs. Turnout 61.57%. Final count from the Okinawa Prefectural Election Commission (corrected version, 16 September 2026).
Direction: HitMagnitude: Miss
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts — sealed 2 days before the event. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
2f35473b 4a5252d9 48e3fe6b 16df6cb4 22a58723 af5d5adb 8bbddd37 008a5a6c
Status: anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain
Calendars: alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, finney.calendar.eternitywall.com
Seal date: 11 September 2026 · event: 13 September 2026
To check it yourself: download the proof, then run ots verify with the OpenTimestamps client, or follow our verification guide. If a single byte of the report had changed, the fingerprint would not match.
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