Nonthaburi Electoral Forecast
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Published on 11 September 2026
Forecast sealed before the Nonthaburi provincial presidency election in Thailand of 20 September 2026. Information cut-off: 10 September.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
Naruephon Yenprasert (candidate 1) favourite to finish first: 80.10% probability (Decharut Sukkumnoed, candidate 4, 19.90%). Central vector of valid votes: candidate 1 at 49.00% · candidate 4 at 40.25%; central lead of 8.75 points. A victory by the second favourite remains a material possibility.
Official result
Naruephon Yenprasert (candidate 1) won with 55.92% of votes cast for candidates against 39.93% for Decharut Sukkumnoed (candidate 4); both shares landed inside their bands (41–58% and 30–50%), as did candidates 2, 3 and 6. Only candidate 5 finished slightly below its band (0.36% vs 0.5–3.5%). The 15.99-point margin was 7.24 points wider than the forecast central lead (8.75). Turnout 35.0%. Provisional 100% count announced by the Election Commission's provincial office on 20 September 2026; formal certification pending.
Direction: HitMagnitude: Hit
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts — sealed 9 days before the event. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
8be7468d 3e7ac0fa 6e7a7de9 90711317 c8234cb9 c2d39d39 658dfe84 f992b6ab
Status: anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain
Calendars: alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, finney.calendar.eternitywall.com
Seal date: 11 September 2026 · event: 20 September 2026
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