Electoral Prediction Zambia – Second Window
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Published on 13 August 2026
Second pre-election window for Zambia's general elections, sealed on 13 August 2026 before polls opened. The 8 July report remains intact and is scored separately.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
Second window, on information available to 10 August: Hichilema re-elected with 87% probability; vote share between 48% and 62%; a 70% chance of a first-round resolution; turnout between 56% and 68%; 130 to 180 elected seats for the UPND.
Official result
Hichilema took 60.49% and Mundubile 37.87%, both within the forecast bands; there was no run-off. Turnout was 57.23%. The UPND reached 200 elected seats, above the band. Official ECZ declaration, 18 August 2026.
Direction: HitMagnitude: Miss
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
f59eab35 67042cbd d6ad48e4 6ec8adf5 f45f6710 a4ec52c8 1e5c4bd9 bc13047c
Status: anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain
Calendars: alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, finney.calendar.eternitywall.com, bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org
Seal date: 13 August 2026 · event: 13 August 2026
To check it yourself: download the proof, then run ots verify with the OpenTimestamps client, or use our verification tool. If a single byte of the report had changed, the fingerprint would not match.