Electoral Prediction Zambia – Second Window
Leer este informe en español →
Published on 13 August 2026
Second pre-election window for Zambia's general elections, sealed on 13 August 2026 before polls opened. The 8 July report remains intact and is scored separately.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
Second window, on information available to 10 August: Hichilema re-elected with 87% probability; vote share between 48% and 62%; a 70% chance of a first-round resolution; turnout between 56% and 68%; 130 to 180 elected seats for the UPND.
Official result
Hichilema took 60.49% and Mundubile 37.87%, both within the forecast bands; there was no run-off. Turnout was 57.23%. The UPND reached 200 elected seats, above the band. Official ECZ declaration, 18 August 2026.
Direction: HitMagnitude: Miss
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
f59eab35 67042cbd d6ad48e4 6ec8adf5 f45f6710 a4ec52c8 1e5c4bd9 bc13047c
Status: anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain
Calendars: alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, finney.calendar.eternitywall.com, bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org
Seal date: 13 August 2026 · event: 13 August 2026
To check it yourself: download the proof, then run ots verify with the OpenTimestamps client, or follow our verification guide. If a single byte of the report had changed, the fingerprint would not match.
For media
Embed this forecast on your site
Copy the code and paste it into your article. The card updates itself with the official result. Light theme: add &tema=claro to the link; Portuguese: ?lang=pt.