Electoral Prediction Zambia
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Published on 8 July 2026
Electoral prediction for Zambia's general elections, held on 13 August 2026. Sealed on 8 July, 36 days before the vote.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
Hichilema re-elected with 88% probability; first-round vote between 48% and 57%; a 30-45% chance of a run-off; turnout between 56% and 68%; 140 to 172 of the 266 elected seats for the UPND.
Official result
Hichilema was re-elected in the first round with 60.49% of valid votes, against 37.87% for Brian Mundubile; there was no run-off. Turnout was 57.23%. The UPND won 200 elected seats, above the forecast band. Official ECZ declaration, 18 August 2026.
Direction: HitMagnitude: Miss
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts — sealed 36 days before the event. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
d6807255 a7dac20a de9a5a0a 43aad350 55aea8a7 530484eb 7a14bb9c e628d06c
Status: anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain
Calendars: alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, finney.calendar.eternitywall.com
Seal date: 8 July 2026 · event: 13 August 2026
To check it yourself: download the proof, then run ots verify with the OpenTimestamps client, or follow our verification guide. If a single byte of the report had changed, the fingerprint would not match.
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