Electoral Prediction São Tomé and Príncipe
Leer este informe en español →
Published on 9 July 2026
Electoral prediction for São Tomé and Príncipe's presidential election, held on 19 July 2026. Sealed on 8 July, eleven days before the vote.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
Vila Nova between 41% and 57% of the first-round vote and Nito d'Abreu between 31% and 47%; a run-off as the most likely scenario (60%); turnout around 84,000 voters; overall re-election probability of 71%.
Official result
Vila Nova was re-elected in the first round with 55.88%, against 41.46% for Nito d'Abreu; there was no run-off. Turnout was 41.43% (58,906 voters), far below forecast. Constitutional Court proclamation.
Direction: HitMagnitude: Miss
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts — sealed 10 days before the event. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
8ea6a004 a82be64c db65a6cc 2a5eaaa5 aa072929 92d6dce0 604e987f 0be3ad5a
Status: anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain
Calendars: alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, finney.calendar.eternitywall.com, bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org
Seal date: 9 July 2026 · event: 19 July 2026
To check it yourself: download the proof, then run ots verify with the OpenTimestamps client, or use our verification tool. If a single byte of the report had changed, the fingerprint would not match.