Electoral Prediction Kazakhstan
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Published on 22 August 2026
Electoral prediction for the elections to the Kurultai, Kazakhstan's new 145-seat unicameral parliament, held on 23 August 2026.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
Adilet first with 95-99% probability and at least 73 of the 145 seats at 85-95%; Auyl second at 60-75%; three or four lists winning seats as the central scenario (55-70%); Auyl, Aq Jol and Respublica each with at least one seat.
Official result
Adilet won with 71.17% and 110 of the 145 seats; Auyl came second (6.26%, 10 seats). Five lists won representation — also Respublica, Aq Jol and NSDP — one more than the central scenario. Turnout was 74.08%. Final CEC results.
Direction: HitMagnitude: Miss
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts — sealed 1 day before the event. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
96588a49 f62929e7 03514c32 54b67086 ed01cc37 69495f20 77a1474a 8f8942fd
Status: anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain
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Seal date: 22 August 2026 · event: 23 August 2026
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