Electoral Forecast Saxony-Anhalt - State Parliament Elections
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Published on 4 September 2026
Forecast frozen as of 4 September for the 6 September Landtag election: AfD clear favourite to come first (42.5%), but short of a majority in the central scenario; the 5% threshold, seats, government formation and forecasts 1–24 months ahead.
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Forecast sealed before the event
AfD largest party with 99% probability: AfD 42.5% · CDU 22.5%, a 20-point margin; only a 20% chance of an AfD absolute majority. Central scenario: the Greens get in (6.0%, 65% chance of clearing 5%), BSW (3.5%) and FDP (2.5%) stay out, and AfD wins 39 of the 83 seats, three short of a majority.
Official result
AfD came first with 43.8% against 17.2% for the CDU (a 26.6-point margin) and won 39 of the 83 seats, short of an absolute majority: the same figure as the central scenario, though the rest of the chamber split differently. The CDU fell below its stress range (18–28%), the Greens finished above theirs (8.9% vs 3.5–8.5%) and BSW entered parliament with 5.3%; the FDP stayed out (2.6%). Turnout 77.8%. Final result determined by the State Electoral Committee (Landeswahlausschuss), 22 September 2026.
Direction: HitMagnitude: Miss
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9ab018cb fab74e00 bd7d1186 c80a1025 117291ae f66fdddb 66066e3d 5381e4f9
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Seal date: 4 September 2026 · event: 6 September 2026
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