Electoral Forecast Iceland - EU Referendum
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Published on 27 August 2026
Forecast frozen as of 24 August for the 29 August referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations: a narrow Yes lead, scenarios, polls at the cut-off and post-vote monitoring.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
A Yes win in the referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations: 77.11% probability. Yes at 51.84% of valid votes (80% band: 48.63–55.05%); Yes–No margin of +3.68 points (band −2.74 to +10.09); turnout of 72.36% (band 58.43–80.52%).
Official result
No won with 52.84% of valid votes against 47.16% for Yes: a 5.69-point margin against resuming negotiations. Yes fell below its band (48.63–55.05%), and turnout, at 82.6%, came in above its own (58.43–80.52%). Result certified by the National Electoral Commission (Landskjörstjórn), 22 September 2026.
Direction: MissMagnitude: Miss
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts — sealed 2 days before the event. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
eed05458 6c020d30 8046a6b2 34d0ea5a e0bcbff3 725d97e5 55e1e77e 620bff58
Status: anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain
Calendars: alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org, finney.calendar.eternitywall.com
Seal date: 27 August 2026 · event: 29 August 2026
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