Electoral Forecast Canada - 3 Federal By-elections
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Published on 28 August 2026
Forecast frozen as of 25 August for the 31 August by-elections in Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and North Vancouver—Capilano: a Liberal win as the central scenario, CLF as the competitive race, and a comparison framework against external benchmarks.
✓ Verifiable timestamp (OpenTimestamps)
Forecast sealed before the event
Liberal wins in all three by-elections. Beaches—East York: LPC 59.61% · CPC 22.56% · NDP 14.63% (99.72% probability). Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, the open race: LPC 36.75% · BQ 32.57% · CPC 24.95% (60.22%). North Vancouver—Capilano: LPC 51.55% · CPC 32.59% (92.40%).
Official result
The Liberals won all three ridings. Beaches—East York: 55.8%, with the NDP second (25.6%) ahead of the Conservatives (15.5%), the reverse of the forecast order and both outside their bands (10.27–19.45% and 16.30–29.31%). Chicoutimi—Le Fjord: 51.6% against 32.8% for the Bloc and 12.6% for the Conservatives, a far cry from the close race that was forecast; the Liberals and Conservatives both fell outside their bands (28.60–45.16% and 16.99–33.30%). North Vancouver—Capilano: 58.7% against 29.2% for the Conservatives, both inside their bands. Official results validated by each riding's returning officer (Elections Canada), 2–3 September 2026.
Direction: HitMagnitude: Miss
Independent verification
This document was timestamped before the event it forecasts — sealed 3 days before the event. The proof does not depend on Oliveira Vantage: anyone can check it without asking us for anything.
SHA-256 fingerprint of the document
73a749d8 1c951787 45e5cd18 581bd8dc 3bd369ef 659f3311 ab4325d5 5543bafa
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Seal date: 28 August 2026 · event: 31 August 2026
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